The Viceroy


Shorthopping baseballs is a defined term:

Pete Colombo – 6/15/2004  “I tell my players to get as close to the hop as possible with the glove and try and use the free hand as a cover against the ball riding up out of the glove.  Show them that if they can get their glove right on where the hop is, it will almost always go right into the glove. Of course, they must ACTUALLY SEE the ball go int the glove.  If they don’t see it in, the chances are greatly reduced that it will go in.  Also, tell them that a short hop is a bad throw — they ARE NOT expected to make the scoop — they ARE expected to block the ball from going past them.  When the scoop is made, it is a web gem.  This will help them relax and not take it so hard when they do not come up with the scoop.”

Bubbles are not new. Wikipedia starts an account of a number of them by describing the Tulip mania bubble (1637) which saw the Viceroy sell for ten times the annual salary of an average skilled craftsman.  This phenomenon supports Eric Janszen‘s notion of “fictitious value”.  There is no historical record accurate enough to say with certainty why this irrational exuberance in tulips happened, but it is not unreasonable to guess that a specific set of conditions enabled the aberration. For the sake of argument, let’s call this set of conditions a hard kernel in that it did not conform to the norm of forces setting value in the marketplace.  Wikipedia lists maybe 20 bubble examples well suited for evaluating a substantial fraction of the advanced research techniques claimed to be possible by the Triad.  Evaluating these is a separate but indispensable exercise.

Teeing off on this argument, we have a chance to engage in a little applied research, thanks to Dr.Eichengreen’s NBER Paper #10497 in which he takes the position that Asian countries must come to the realization that export domination as a growth determinant will reach a point of diminishing returns, to be replaced by a balanced set of transactions including consumer goods,  higher education, housing, etc.  Taking the following argument from his NBER paper:

  • ” (This) will require allowing the real exchange rate to rise. The obvious way of allowing the real rate to rise without compromising the commitment to price stability is to curtail intervention in the foreign exchange market. Once one or more Asian countries acknowledge that export-led growth is encountering diminishing returns and curtail their intervention, the cartel of central banks that had been supporting the dollar and preventing Asian currencies from rising will begin to fray. One can imagine a gradual migration out of dollars and into alternative reserve assets like that which occurred after 1968. Given the low yields on yen-denominated assets, the euro is the obvious direction for such migration.(43)  In addition, the  commitment of Asian governments to encourage the development of a regional bond market may lead them to allocate a growing share of their reserve portfolios toward assets denominated in one another’s currencies.
  • (43) Europe faces many problems and challenges, to be sure, including high inherited debt burdens and a looming demographic time bomb. If these simply lead to higher tax rates and slower growth, they will not make the euro any less appealing as a reserve asset, for Europe will still have the deep and liquid bond markets required to make a reserve asset attractive. If on the other hand they lead to secularly declining terms of trade, high inflation as the ECB seeks to inflate away the member state’s debt burdens, and/or debt default, the story would be very different. How the debt-come-demographic crisis will play itself out is of course a different paper.”  ©2004 by Barry Eichengreen.

The challenge is to find the hard kernels in this excerpt.  Depending on how long this takes, complete the whole document and correlate with Eric Janszen’s work.  Having warmed up with this drill, some real time shorthopping might be in the cards.  The challenger this time is Mr. Richard Fisher, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. who set the stage in his WSJ interview.  Once his interview is mined for hard kernels, the big fish might be his bank’s estimate that our political leaders have incurred unfunded liabilities of $99 trillion in domestic programs.

Real time applications

The nation committed a major error when it did not shorthop the subprime mortgage legislation.  After it solves the illegal immigration problem, it would be unthinkable that it would repeat the process with health care when it has a Swiss model that yields universal health care for about 11% of the GDP as opposed to the United States’ broken system costing about 17% of the GDP.  Carbon Trading has the potential to be a major source of fictitious wealth in the Janszen template and as such, a prime candidate for shorthopping.

It is not unreasonable to take the position that IPv8 has yielded a remote opinion on the 2010 Euro problem with characterization of its elements in this Phase VI impression.

  • A leopard – A faint image of North Africa – A  row of the escalators at 270 Park Ave. – A Sears Diehard automobile battery – A cast iron Dutch oven – A white sedan with black trim leaving a zone of confusion (3-10-10)

Work in Progress

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